Scienze Politiche e delle Relazioni Internazionali | STATISTICS

cod. 1212100002

STATISTICS

	1212100002
	DIPARTIMENTO DI SCIENZE POLITICHE E DELLA COMUNICAZIONE
	EQF6
	POLITICAL AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS SCIENCE
	2018/2019

CURRICULUM ECONOMIA E POLITICHE PER LO SVILUPPO

	OBBLIGATORIO
	YEAR OF COURSE 2
	YEAR OF DIDACTIC SYSTEM 2017
	PRIMO SEMESTRE

TEACHING UNITS

	SSD	CFU	HOURS	ACTIVITY	TYPE OF ACTIVITY
	SECS-S/01	9	60	LESSONS	BASIC COMPULSORY SUBJECTS

	Objectives
	CRITICAL KNOWLEDGE OF THE MAIN TOOLS OF STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, DESCRIPTIVE-EXPLORATORY AND INFERENTIAL, FOR THE QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF REAL PHENOMENA IN POLITICAL SCIENCE. IN PARTICULAR, THE USEFULNESS OF STATISTICS WITHIN DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES THAT ARE CORRECTLY BASED ON AN ADEQUATE COLLECTION OF INFORMATION AND ON THEIR PROPER PROCESSING AND INTERPRETATION WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED. EXPECTED LEARNING RESULTS: KNOWLEDGE AND UNDERSTANDING CAPACITY ABILITY TO ANALYZE AND INTERPRET QUANTITATIVE INFORMATION TO PRODUCE USEFUL AND NECESSARY KNOWLEDGE FOR DECISION SUPPORT UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY. CAPACITY TO APPLY KNOWLEDGE AND UNDERSTANDING ABILITY TO PRODUCE AND PROCESS QUANTITATIVE INFORMATION AND THE ABILITY TO USE APPROPRIATE STATISTICAL TOOLS FOR THE ANALYSIS AND SOLUTION OF PROBLEMS RELATED TO THE ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL PHENOMENA. JUDGMENT AUTONOMY AT THE END OF THE COURSE, STUDENTS WILL BE ABLE TO INDEPENDENTLY ANALYZE AND EVALUATE DOCUMENTS AND REPORTS THAT INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE INFORMATION, FORMULATING CRITICAL JUDGMENTS ON HOW DATA IS COLLECTED, HOW THE COLLECTED INFORMATION IS PROCESSED AND THE INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL VALIDITY. CONCLUSIONS REACHED. COMMUNICATION SKILLS THE ABILITY TO PRESENT INFORMATION OF A QUANTITATIVE NATURE, BOTH IN ORAL AND WRITTEN FORM, WITH LANGUAGE PROPERTIES, EFFECTIVELY AND CLEARLY. LEARNING SKILLS THE COURSE WILL ALLOW STUDENTS TO ACQUIRE THE LOGICAL-CONCEPTUAL STRUCTURE NECESSARY FOR THE ANALYSIS AND PROCESSING OF QUANTITATIVE INFORMATION, ALSO PROVIDING THE ABILITY TO LINK THE SKILLS ACQUIRED, EVEN IN MORE ADVANCED COURSES, WITH THOSE LEARNED IN THE COURSES MORE SIMILAR IN THE ECONOMIC FIELD.

CRITICAL KNOWLEDGE OF THE MAIN TOOLS OF STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, DESCRIPTIVE-EXPLORATORY AND INFERENTIAL, FOR THE QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF REAL PHENOMENA IN POLITICAL SCIENCE. IN PARTICULAR, THE USEFULNESS OF STATISTICS WITHIN DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES THAT ARE CORRECTLY BASED ON AN ADEQUATE COLLECTION OF INFORMATION AND ON THEIR PROPER PROCESSING AND INTERPRETATION WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED.

EXPECTED LEARNING RESULTS:

KNOWLEDGE AND UNDERSTANDING CAPACITY
ABILITY TO ANALYZE AND INTERPRET QUANTITATIVE INFORMATION TO PRODUCE USEFUL AND NECESSARY KNOWLEDGE FOR DECISION SUPPORT UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY.
CAPACITY TO APPLY KNOWLEDGE AND UNDERSTANDING
ABILITY TO PRODUCE AND PROCESS QUANTITATIVE INFORMATION AND THE ABILITY TO USE APPROPRIATE STATISTICAL TOOLS FOR THE ANALYSIS AND SOLUTION OF PROBLEMS RELATED TO THE ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL PHENOMENA.
JUDGMENT AUTONOMY
AT THE END OF THE COURSE, STUDENTS WILL BE ABLE TO INDEPENDENTLY ANALYZE AND EVALUATE DOCUMENTS AND REPORTS THAT INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE INFORMATION, FORMULATING CRITICAL JUDGMENTS ON HOW DATA IS COLLECTED, HOW THE COLLECTED INFORMATION IS PROCESSED AND THE INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL VALIDITY. CONCLUSIONS REACHED.
COMMUNICATION SKILLS
THE ABILITY TO PRESENT INFORMATION OF A QUANTITATIVE NATURE, BOTH IN ORAL AND WRITTEN FORM, WITH LANGUAGE PROPERTIES, EFFECTIVELY AND CLEARLY.
LEARNING SKILLS
THE COURSE WILL ALLOW STUDENTS TO ACQUIRE THE LOGICAL-CONCEPTUAL STRUCTURE NECESSARY FOR THE ANALYSIS AND PROCESSING OF QUANTITATIVE INFORMATION, ALSO PROVIDING THE ABILITY TO LINK THE SKILLS ACQUIRED, EVEN IN MORE ADVANCED COURSES, WITH THOSE LEARNED IN THE COURSES MORE SIMILAR IN THE ECONOMIC FIELD.

	Prerequisites
	IT IS ONLY USEFUL TO KNOW THE BASIC PRINCIPLES OF ALGEBRAIC CALCULATION, AS PROVIDED FOR BY THE PROGRAMS OF ALL SECONDARY SCHOOLS.

	Contents
	OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY OF STATISTICS. STATISTICAL SURVEYS. FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS AND GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATIONS. ANALYSIS OF POSITION, VARIABILITY AND SHAPE. THE BOX-PLOT. DOUBLE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS. MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL DISTRIBUTIONS AND RELATED CHARACTERISTIC MOMENTS. COVARIANCE AND CORRELATION AND THEIR PROPERTIES. SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION. AXIOMATIZATION AND MEASUREMENT OF PROBABILITY. MAIN THEOREMS OF THE PROBABILITIES. BAYES THEOREM. DEFINITION OF RANDOM VARIABLE. DISCREET RANDOM VARIABLES. BREAKDOWN FUNCTION AND MOMENTS OF A DISCRETE CAUSAL VARIABLE. THE RANDOM VARIABLE OF BERNOULLI AND BINOMIAL. THE CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLES. THE NORMAL RANDOM VARIABLE AND ITS PROPERTIES. RANDOM VARIABLES DERIVED FROM NORMAL. THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM. INTRODUCTION TO STATISTICAL INFERENCE. RANDOM SAMPLES AND SAMPLE DISTRIBUTIONS. ESTIMATORS AND RELATED PROPERTIES. THE ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE PARAMETERS OF A POPULATION. CONSTRUCTION OF CONFIDENCE INTERVALS. CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR NORMAL POPULATIONS. CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR PROPORTION, LARGE SAMPLES. KEY FEATURES OF THE VERIFICATION OF STATISTICAL HYPOTHESES. OPERATING PROCEDURE FOR A TEST. TEST ON THE PARAMETERS OF A NORMAL POPULATION. TEST ON PROPORTIONS. INDEPENDENCE TEST. TEST ON THE GOODNESS OF ADAPTATION.

Contents

OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY OF STATISTICS. STATISTICAL SURVEYS. FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS AND GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATIONS. ANALYSIS OF POSITION, VARIABILITY AND SHAPE. THE BOX-PLOT. DOUBLE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS. MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL DISTRIBUTIONS AND RELATED CHARACTERISTIC MOMENTS. COVARIANCE AND CORRELATION AND THEIR PROPERTIES. SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION. AXIOMATIZATION AND MEASUREMENT OF PROBABILITY. MAIN THEOREMS OF THE PROBABILITIES. BAYES THEOREM. DEFINITION OF RANDOM VARIABLE. DISCREET RANDOM VARIABLES. BREAKDOWN FUNCTION AND MOMENTS OF A DISCRETE CAUSAL VARIABLE. THE RANDOM VARIABLE OF BERNOULLI AND BINOMIAL. THE CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLES. THE NORMAL RANDOM VARIABLE AND ITS PROPERTIES. RANDOM VARIABLES DERIVED FROM NORMAL. THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM.
INTRODUCTION TO STATISTICAL INFERENCE. RANDOM SAMPLES AND SAMPLE DISTRIBUTIONS. ESTIMATORS AND RELATED PROPERTIES. THE ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE PARAMETERS OF A POPULATION. CONSTRUCTION OF CONFIDENCE INTERVALS. CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR NORMAL POPULATIONS. CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR PROPORTION, LARGE SAMPLES. KEY FEATURES OF THE VERIFICATION OF STATISTICAL HYPOTHESES. OPERATING PROCEDURE FOR A TEST. TEST ON THE PARAMETERS OF A NORMAL POPULATION. TEST ON PROPORTIONS. INDEPENDENCE TEST. TEST ON THE GOODNESS OF ADAPTATION.

	Teaching Methods
	THE COURSE CONSISTS OF 60 HOURS OF FRONTAL TEACHING DIVIDED INTO THEORETICAL LESSONS AND IN ADDITIONS AND EXERCISES IN THE CLASSROOM. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO CLEAR SPLIT BETWEEN THE HOURS OF LECTURES AND THE EXERCISES AS THE DISCUSSION OF EACH THEORETICAL TOPIC WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS EXAMPLES AND GUIDED EXERCISES, WHOSE RESOLUTION METHOD CONSISTS IN UNDERSTANDING THE PROBLEM, IN PLANNING THE SOLUTION, AND FINALLY IN THE RESOLUTION. THE ATTENDANCE TO THE COURSE, BOTH FOR THE THEORETICAL PART AND FOR THE PART OF EXERCISES, ALTHOUGH NOT COMPULSORY, IS STRONGLY RECOMMENDED FOR THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE DISCIPLINE.

Teaching Methods

THE COURSE CONSISTS OF 60 HOURS OF FRONTAL TEACHING DIVIDED INTO THEORETICAL LESSONS AND IN ADDITIONS AND EXERCISES IN THE CLASSROOM. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO CLEAR SPLIT BETWEEN THE HOURS OF LECTURES AND THE EXERCISES AS THE DISCUSSION OF EACH THEORETICAL TOPIC WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS EXAMPLES AND GUIDED EXERCISES, WHOSE RESOLUTION METHOD CONSISTS IN UNDERSTANDING THE PROBLEM, IN PLANNING THE SOLUTION, AND FINALLY IN THE RESOLUTION.
THE ATTENDANCE TO THE COURSE, BOTH FOR THE THEORETICAL PART AND FOR THE PART OF EXERCISES, ALTHOUGH NOT COMPULSORY, IS STRONGLY RECOMMENDED FOR THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE DISCIPLINE.

	Verification of learning
	THE EXAM IS DESIGNED TO ASSESS THE STUDENT'S ABILITY TO HAVE LEARNED THE BASIC PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICAL INVESTIGATION, IN THE DESCRIPTIVE AND INFERENTIAL FIELDS. THE VOTE, EXPRESSED IN THIRTIETHS WITH POSSIBLE PRAISE, WILL DEPEND ON THE ACQUIRED MATURITY ON THE CONTENTS OF THE COURSE. THE EXAM CONSISTS OF A WRITTEN TEST BEFORE AN ORAL EXAMINATION. THE WRITTEN TEST CONSISTS OF TWO PARTS A AND B. PART A CONSISTS OF 3 EXERCISES EACH OF WHICH FOCUSES ON A PART OF THE PROGRAM OF THE COURSE, THAT IS AN EXERCISE IN DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS (8 POINTS), A PROBABILITY EXERCISE (8 POINTS) , AN EXERCISE OF STATISTICAL INFERENCE (8 POINTS). PART B) PROPOSES 2 OPEN-ANSWER QUESTIONS (2 POINTS EACH) AND 2 MULTIPLE-CHOICE QUESTIONS (1 POINT EACH), KEEPING THE SAME SUBDIVISION OF THE ARGUMENTS OF THE PART. TO ACCESS THE ORAL TEST IT IS NECESSARY TO REACH AT LEAST 12 POINTS IN PART A) AND 4 POINTS IN PART B) THE ORAL TEST WILL CONSIST OF AN INTERVIEW IN WHICH THE GAPS EVENTUALLY FOUND IN THE WRITTEN TEST WILL BE FILLED. FOR STUDENTS WHO HAVE FULLY COMPLETED ALL THE QUESTIONS PROPOSED, BOTH IN PART A) AND IN PART B), A QUESTION IN PART B WILL BE EXAMINED IN DETAIL. FOR THE PURPOSES OF THE PRAISE WE WILL TAKE INTO ACCOUNT: - THE QUALITY OF THE EXHIBITION, IN TERMS OF USING APPROPRIATE SCIENTIFIC LANGUAGE - THE ABILITY OF CROSS-CORRELATION BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT TOPICS OF THE COURSE AND, WHERE POSSIBLE, WITH OTHERS DISCIPLINES - OF THE AUTONOMY OF PROVEN JUDGMENT. DURING THE COURSE IT IS POSSIBLE TO CARRY OUT TWO PARTIAL TESTS, RESPECTIVELY AFTER HALF OF THE LESSONS AND AT THE END SEMESTER. EACH TEST WILL WEIGH 50% ON THE FINAL MARK. THE EVALUATION OF THE TWO TESTS WILL BE EXPRESSED IN THIRTIETHS AND THE FINAL SCORE WILL BE GIVEN BY THE WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF THE TWO TESTS. IF THE FINAL SCORE IS ABOVE 18/30 STUDENTS CAN BE CONSIDERED EXEMPTED FROM THE WRITTEN TEST. THE EXONERATION WILL BE VALID EXCLUSIVELY FOR THE EXAMINATION SESSION FOLLOWING THAT OF THE TEACHING.

Verification of learning

THE EXAM IS DESIGNED TO ASSESS THE STUDENT'S ABILITY TO HAVE LEARNED THE BASIC PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICAL INVESTIGATION, IN THE DESCRIPTIVE AND INFERENTIAL FIELDS. THE VOTE,
EXPRESSED IN THIRTIETHS WITH POSSIBLE PRAISE, WILL DEPEND ON THE ACQUIRED MATURITY ON THE CONTENTS OF THE COURSE. THE EXAM CONSISTS OF A WRITTEN TEST BEFORE AN ORAL EXAMINATION.
THE WRITTEN TEST CONSISTS OF TWO PARTS A AND B. PART A CONSISTS OF 3 EXERCISES EACH OF WHICH FOCUSES ON A PART OF THE PROGRAM OF THE COURSE, THAT IS AN EXERCISE IN DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS (8 POINTS), A PROBABILITY EXERCISE (8 POINTS) , AN EXERCISE OF STATISTICAL INFERENCE (8 POINTS).
PART B) PROPOSES 2 OPEN-ANSWER QUESTIONS (2 POINTS EACH) AND 2 MULTIPLE-CHOICE QUESTIONS (1 POINT EACH), KEEPING THE SAME SUBDIVISION OF THE ARGUMENTS OF THE PART.
TO ACCESS THE ORAL TEST IT IS NECESSARY TO REACH AT LEAST 12 POINTS IN PART A) AND 4 POINTS IN PART B)
THE ORAL TEST WILL CONSIST OF AN INTERVIEW IN WHICH THE GAPS EVENTUALLY FOUND IN THE WRITTEN TEST WILL BE FILLED. FOR STUDENTS WHO HAVE FULLY COMPLETED ALL THE QUESTIONS PROPOSED, BOTH IN PART A) AND IN PART B), A QUESTION IN PART B WILL BE EXAMINED IN DETAIL.
FOR THE PURPOSES OF THE PRAISE WE WILL TAKE INTO ACCOUNT:
- THE QUALITY OF THE EXHIBITION, IN TERMS OF USING APPROPRIATE SCIENTIFIC LANGUAGE
- THE ABILITY OF CROSS-CORRELATION BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT TOPICS OF THE COURSE AND, WHERE POSSIBLE, WITH OTHERS
DISCIPLINES
- OF THE AUTONOMY OF PROVEN JUDGMENT.
DURING THE COURSE IT IS POSSIBLE TO CARRY OUT TWO PARTIAL TESTS, RESPECTIVELY AFTER HALF OF THE LESSONS AND AT THE END
SEMESTER. EACH TEST WILL WEIGH 50% ON THE FINAL MARK. THE EVALUATION OF THE TWO TESTS WILL BE EXPRESSED IN
THIRTIETHS AND THE FINAL SCORE WILL BE GIVEN BY THE WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF THE TWO TESTS. IF THE FINAL SCORE IS
ABOVE 18/30 STUDENTS CAN BE CONSIDERED EXEMPTED FROM THE WRITTEN TEST. THE EXONERATION WILL BE VALID EXCLUSIVELY FOR THE EXAMINATION SESSION FOLLOWING THAT OF THE TEACHING.

	Texts
	ALTERNATIVELY 1) M. SULLIVAN, FOUNDATIONS OF STATISTICS, PEARSON EDUCATION; 2) ANY UNIVERSITY TEXT OF FOUNDATIONS OF STATISTICS WITH A SOCIO-ECONOMIC ORIENTATION THE MATERIAL FOR THE EXERCISES, ALTHOUGH PRESENT IN THE RECOMMENDED TEXT, WILL BE INTEGRATED DURING THE COURSE BY THE TEACHER.