Scienze Politiche e delle Relazioni Internazionali | STATISTICS

cod. 1212100002

STATISTICS

	1212100002
	DIPARTIMENTO DI SCIENZE POLITICHE E DELLA COMUNICAZIONE
	EQF6
	POLITICAL AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS SCIENCE
	2019/2020

CURRICULUM ECONOMIA E POLITICHE PER LO SVILUPPO Cohort 2018/2019

	OBBLIGATORIO
	YEAR OF COURSE 2
	YEAR OF DIDACTIC SYSTEM 2017
	SECONDO SEMESTRE

TEACHING UNITS

	SSD	CFU	HOURS	ACTIVITY	TYPE OF ACTIVITY
	SECS-S/01	9	60	LESSONS	BASIC COMPULSORY SUBJECTS

	Objectives
	CRITICAL KNOWLEDGE OF THE MAIN STATISTICAL ANALYSIS TOOLS, DESCRIPTIVE-EXPLORATIVE AND INFERENTIAL, FOR THE QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF REAL PHENOMENA IN POLITICAL SCIENCE. CRITICAL USE OF STATISTICS WITHIN DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES, PROPERLY BASED ON AN ADEQUATE COLLECTION OF INFORMATION AND ON APPROPRIATE PROCESSING AND INTERPRETATION.

	Prerequisites
	ONLY A KNOWLEDGE OF THE BASIC PRINCIPLES OF ALGEBRAIC CALCULATION IS USEFUL, AS FORESEEN BY THE PROGRAMS OF ALL TYPES OF SECONDARY SCHOOL DEGREE.

	Contents
	OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY OF STATISTICS. STATISTICAL SURVEYS. FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS AND GRAPHIC REPRESENTATIONS. POSITION, VARIABILITY AND SHAPE ANALYSIS. THE BOX-PLOT. BIVARIATE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS. MARGINAL DISTRIBUTIONS, CONDITIONAL AND RELATIVE CHARACTERISTIC MOMENTS. THE COVARIANCE AND THE CORRELATION AND RELATED PROPERTIES. SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION. AXIOMATIZATION AND PROBABILITY MEASUREMENT. MAIN THEOREMS OF PROBABILITY CALCULUS. BAYES THEOREM. DEFINITION OF A RANDOM VARIABLE. DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES. DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION AND MOMENTS OF A DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE. BERNOULLI RANDOM VARIABLE AND BINOMIAL. CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLES. NORMAL RANDOM VARIABLE AND ITS PROPERTIES. RANDOM VARIABLES DERIVED FROM THE NORMAL. THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM. INTRODUCTION TO STATISTICAL INFERENCE. RANDOM SAMPLES AND SAMPLE DISTRIBUTIONS. ESTIMATORS AND THEIR PROPERTIES. THE POINT ESTIMATE OF THE PARAMETERS OF A POPULATION. CONSTRUCTION OF CONFIDENCE INTERVALS. CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR NORMAL POPULATIONS. CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR PROPORTION, LARGE SAMPLES. FUNDAMENTAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE VERIFICATION OF STATISTICAL HYPOTHESES. OPERATING PROCEDURE FOR A TEST. TESTS ON THE PARAMETERS OF A NORMAL POPULATION. TEST ON PROPORTIONS. INDEPENDENCE TEST. TEST ON THE GOODNESS OF ADAPTATION.

OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY OF STATISTICS. STATISTICAL SURVEYS. FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS AND GRAPHIC REPRESENTATIONS. POSITION, VARIABILITY AND SHAPE ANALYSIS. THE BOX-PLOT. BIVARIATE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS. MARGINAL DISTRIBUTIONS, CONDITIONAL AND RELATIVE CHARACTERISTIC MOMENTS. THE COVARIANCE AND THE CORRELATION AND RELATED PROPERTIES. SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION. AXIOMATIZATION AND PROBABILITY MEASUREMENT. MAIN THEOREMS OF PROBABILITY CALCULUS. BAYES THEOREM. DEFINITION OF A RANDOM VARIABLE. DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES. DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION AND MOMENTS OF A DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE. BERNOULLI RANDOM VARIABLE AND BINOMIAL. CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLES. NORMAL RANDOM VARIABLE AND ITS PROPERTIES. RANDOM VARIABLES DERIVED FROM THE NORMAL. THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM.
INTRODUCTION TO STATISTICAL INFERENCE. RANDOM SAMPLES AND SAMPLE DISTRIBUTIONS. ESTIMATORS AND THEIR PROPERTIES. THE POINT ESTIMATE OF THE PARAMETERS OF A POPULATION. CONSTRUCTION OF CONFIDENCE INTERVALS. CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR NORMAL POPULATIONS. CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR PROPORTION, LARGE SAMPLES. FUNDAMENTAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE VERIFICATION OF STATISTICAL HYPOTHESES. OPERATING PROCEDURE FOR A TEST. TESTS ON THE PARAMETERS OF A NORMAL POPULATION. TEST ON PROPORTIONS. INDEPENDENCE TEST. TEST ON THE GOODNESS OF ADAPTATION.

	Teaching Methods
	THE COURSE CONSISTS OF 60 HOURS OF FRONTAL TEACHING DIVIDED INTO THEORETICAL LESSONS AND COMPLEMENTS AND EXERCISES IN THE CLASSROOM. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO CLEAR SPLIT BETWEEN THE HOURS OF LECTURES AND THE EXERCISES AS THE DISCUSSION OF EACH THEORETICAL TOPIC WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS EXAMPLES AND GUIDED EXERCISES, WHOSE RESOLUTION METHOD CONSISTS IN UNDERSTANDING THE PROBLEM, PLANNING THE SOLUTION, AND FINALLY IN THE RESOLUTION.

Teaching Methods

THE COURSE CONSISTS OF 60 HOURS OF FRONTAL TEACHING DIVIDED INTO THEORETICAL LESSONS AND COMPLEMENTS AND EXERCISES IN THE CLASSROOM. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO CLEAR SPLIT BETWEEN THE HOURS OF LECTURES AND THE EXERCISES AS THE DISCUSSION OF EACH THEORETICAL TOPIC WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS EXAMPLES AND GUIDED EXERCISES, WHOSE RESOLUTION METHOD CONSISTS IN UNDERSTANDING THE PROBLEM, PLANNING THE SOLUTION, AND FINALLY IN THE RESOLUTION.

	Verification of learning
	THE EXAM IS AIMED AT ASSESSING THE STUDENT'S ABILITY TO HAVE LEARNED THE FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICAL INVESTIGATION, IN A DESCRIPTIVE AND INFERENTIAL CONTEXT. THE VOTE, EXPRESSED IN THIRTIETHS WITH POSSIBLE PRAISE, WILL DEPEND ON THE MATURITY ACQUIRED ON THE COURSE CONTENTS. THE EXAM CONSISTS OF A WRITTEN TEST PREPARATORY TO AN ORAL INTERVIEW. THE WRITTEN TEST CONSISTS OF TWO PARTS A AND B. PART A CONSISTS OF 3 EXERCISES, EACH OF WHICH FOCUSES ON A PART OF THE COURSE PROGRAM, I.E. A DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS EXERCISE (8 POINTS), A PROBABILITY EXERCISE (8 POINTS) , AN EXERCISE IN STATISTICAL INFERENCE (8 POINTS). PART B) PROPOSES 2 OPEN-ENDED THEORY QUESTIONS (2 POINTS EACH) AND 2 MULTIPLE-CHOICE QUESTIONS (1 POINT EACH), KEEPING THE SAME SUBDIVISION OF THE TOPICS OF THE PART. TO ACCESS THE ORAL PART IT IS NECESSARY TO REACH AT LEAST 12 POINTS IN PART A) AND 4 POINTS IN PART B) THE ORAL EXAM WILL CONSIST OF AN INTERVIEW IN WHICH ANY GAPS IN THE WRITTEN TEST WILL BE FILLED. FOR STUDENTS WHO HAVE EXHAUSTIVELY COMPLETED ALL THE QUESTIONS PROPOSED, BOTH IN PART A) AND IN PART B), A QUESTION IN PART B WILL BE DISCUSSED IN DEPTH. FOR THE PURPOSES OF PRAISE, ACCOUNT WILL BE TAKEN OF: - THE QUALITY OF EXPOSURE, IN TERMS OF USING APPROPRIATE SCIENTIFIC LANGUAGE - THE TRANSVERSAL CORRELATION ABILITY BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT TOPICS OF THE COURSE AND, WHERE POSSIBLE, WITH OTHER DISCIPLINES - AUTONOMY OF JUDGMENT DEMONSTRATED. DURING THE COURSE IT IS POSSIBLE TO PERFORM TWO PARTIAL TESTS, RESPECTIVELY AFTER HALF OF THE LESSONS AND AT THE END OF THE SEMESTER. EACH TEST WILL WEIGH 50% ON THE FINAL VOTE. THE EVALUATION OF THE TWO TESTS WILL BE EXPRESSED IN THIRTIETHS AND THE FINAL SCORE WILL BE GIVEN BY THE WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF THE TWO TESTS. IF THE FINAL SCORE IS HIGHER THAN 18/30 THE STUDENT CAN CONSIDER HIMSELF EXEMPT FROM THE WRITTEN TEST. THE EXONERATION WILL BE VALID ONLY FOR THE EXAMINATION SESSION AFTER THE ONE OF THE TEACHING.

Verification of learning

THE EXAM IS AIMED AT ASSESSING THE STUDENT'S ABILITY TO HAVE LEARNED THE FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICAL INVESTIGATION, IN A DESCRIPTIVE AND INFERENTIAL CONTEXT. THE VOTE, EXPRESSED IN THIRTIETHS WITH POSSIBLE PRAISE, WILL DEPEND ON THE MATURITY ACQUIRED ON THE COURSE CONTENTS. THE EXAM CONSISTS OF A WRITTEN TEST PREPARATORY TO AN ORAL INTERVIEW.
THE WRITTEN TEST CONSISTS OF TWO PARTS A AND B. PART A CONSISTS OF 3 EXERCISES, EACH OF WHICH FOCUSES ON A PART OF THE COURSE PROGRAM, I.E. A DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS EXERCISE (8 POINTS), A PROBABILITY EXERCISE (8 POINTS) , AN EXERCISE IN STATISTICAL INFERENCE (8 POINTS).
PART B) PROPOSES 2 OPEN-ENDED THEORY QUESTIONS (2 POINTS EACH) AND 2 MULTIPLE-CHOICE QUESTIONS (1 POINT EACH), KEEPING THE SAME SUBDIVISION OF THE TOPICS OF THE PART.
TO ACCESS THE ORAL PART IT IS NECESSARY TO REACH AT LEAST 12 POINTS IN PART A) AND 4 POINTS IN PART B)
THE ORAL EXAM WILL CONSIST OF AN INTERVIEW IN WHICH ANY GAPS IN THE WRITTEN TEST WILL BE FILLED. FOR STUDENTS WHO HAVE EXHAUSTIVELY COMPLETED ALL THE QUESTIONS PROPOSED, BOTH IN PART A) AND IN PART B), A QUESTION IN PART B WILL BE DISCUSSED IN DEPTH.
FOR THE PURPOSES OF PRAISE, ACCOUNT WILL BE TAKEN OF:
- THE QUALITY OF EXPOSURE, IN TERMS OF USING APPROPRIATE SCIENTIFIC LANGUAGE
- THE TRANSVERSAL CORRELATION ABILITY BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT TOPICS OF THE COURSE AND, WHERE POSSIBLE, WITH OTHER DISCIPLINES
- AUTONOMY OF JUDGMENT DEMONSTRATED.
DURING THE COURSE IT IS POSSIBLE TO PERFORM TWO PARTIAL TESTS, RESPECTIVELY AFTER HALF OF THE LESSONS AND AT THE END OF THE SEMESTER. EACH TEST WILL WEIGH 50% ON THE FINAL VOTE. THE EVALUATION OF THE TWO TESTS WILL BE EXPRESSED IN THIRTIETHS AND THE FINAL SCORE WILL BE GIVEN BY THE WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF THE TWO TESTS. IF THE FINAL SCORE IS HIGHER THAN 18/30 THE STUDENT CAN CONSIDER HIMSELF EXEMPT FROM THE WRITTEN TEST. THE EXONERATION WILL BE VALID ONLY FOR THE EXAMINATION SESSION AFTER THE ONE OF THE TEACHING.

	Texts
	ALTERNATIVELY 1) M. SULLIVAN, FOUNDATIONS OF STATISTICS, PEARSON EDUCATION; 2) ANY UNIVERSITY TEXT OF FOUNDATIONS OF STATISTICS WITH SOCIO-ECONOMIC ORIENTATION THE MATERIAL FOR THE EXERCISES, WHETHER PRESENT IN THE RECOMMENDED TEXT, WILL BE INTEGRATED DURING THE COURSE BY THE TEACHER.

	More Information
	FREQUENCY COURSE ATTENDANCE, BOTH FOR THE THEORETICAL PART AND FOR THE PART OF EXERCISES, ALTHOUGH NOT MANDATORY, IS STRONGLY RECOMMENDED FOR THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE DISCIPLINE. TEACHING LANGUAGE ITALIAN. ERASMUS STUDENTS MAY POSSIBLY AGREE WITH THE TEACHER THE USE OF TEXTBOOKS IN ENGLISH.

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