ECONOMICS | Statistics for the evaluation of economic systems

cod. 0222210008

STATISTICS FOR THE EVALUATION OF ECONOMIC SYSTEMS

	0222210008
	DIPARTIMENTO DI SCIENZE ECONOMICHE E STATISTICHE
	EQF7
	ECONOMICS
	2017/2018

CURRICULUM CONSULENZA PROFESSIONALE E FINANZIARIA (CPF)

	YEAR OF DIDACTIC SYSTEM 2016
	PRIMO SEMESTRE

TEACHING UNITS

	SSD	CFU	HOURS	ACTIVITY	TYPE OF ACTIVITY
	SECS-S/03	5	30	LESSONS	OPTIONAL SUBJECTS

	Objectives
	KNOWLEDGE AND UNDERSTANDING AT THE END OF THE COURSE THE STUDENTS ARE EXPECTED TO MASTER THE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL TOOLS FOR UNDERSTANDING AND APPLYING STATISTICAL METHODS POLICY AND PROGRAMME EVALUATION. IN PARTICULAR THE STUDENTS ARE EXPECTED TO GAIN -KNOWLEDGE OF THE ECONOMETRIC FOUNDATIONS OF POLICY AND PROGRAMME EVALUATION. -KNOWLEDGE OF THE MAIN MODELS AND METHODS FOR THE ANALYSIS OF PANEL DATA -KNOWLEDGE OF THE MAIN METHODS FOR PROGRAMME AND POLICY EVALUATION IN EXPERIMENTAL AND NON-EXPERIMENTAL SETTINGS -KNOWLEDGE OF THE MAIN ESTIMATION METHODS FOR THE TREATMENT OF SELECTION BIAS FOR EVALUATION PURPOSES APPLYING KNOWLEDGE AND UNDERSTANDING THE STUDENTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THE ABILITY TO USE ADVANCED MODELS FOR THE STATISTICAL EVALUATION OF POLICIES AND PROGRAMMES MANAGED BY PUBLIC OR PRIVATE ORGANIZATIONS. IN PARTICULAR THEY ARE EXPECTED TO GAIN THE FOLLOWING ABILITIES -ABILITY TO IDENTIFY IN REAL APPLICATIONS METHODS AND MODELS THAT ARE ADEQUATE TO THE SPECIFIC DATASET AND PROBLEM OF INTEREST -ABILITY TO USE A PC IN ORDER IMPLEMENT ON REAL DATA THE MAIN MODELS AND METHODS FOR POLICY AND PROGRAMME EVALUATION -ABILITY TO INTERPRET, IN ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL TERMS, THE RESULTS OBTAINED FROM THE EMPIRICAL ANALYSES AUTONOMIA DI GIUDIZIO (MAKING JUDGEMENTS) IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE STUDENTS, IN THE ANALYSIS OF REAL CASE STUDIES, ARE ABLE TO CRITICALLY EVALUATE THE RESULTS AND, EVENTUALLY, BE ABLE TO FORMULATE CONSTRUCTIVE PROPOSALS OF IMPROVEMENT. COMMUNICATION SKILLS ABILITY TO PRESENT TO A NON-TECHNICAL AUDIENCE THE RESULTS OBTAINED FROM THE APPLICATION OF ADVANCED MODELS FOR PROGRAMME AND POLICY EVALUATION.. LEARNING SKILLS ABILITY TO SUCCESSFULLY PERFORM ADVANCED TRAINING IN ECONOMIC STATISTICS IN MASTER OR DOCTORATE COURSES.

KNOWLEDGE AND UNDERSTANDING
AT THE END OF THE COURSE THE STUDENTS ARE EXPECTED TO MASTER THE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL TOOLS FOR UNDERSTANDING AND APPLYING STATISTICAL METHODS POLICY AND PROGRAMME EVALUATION.
IN PARTICULAR THE STUDENTS ARE EXPECTED TO GAIN
-KNOWLEDGE OF THE ECONOMETRIC FOUNDATIONS OF POLICY AND PROGRAMME EVALUATION.
-KNOWLEDGE OF THE MAIN MODELS AND METHODS FOR THE ANALYSIS OF PANEL DATA
-KNOWLEDGE OF THE MAIN METHODS FOR PROGRAMME AND POLICY EVALUATION IN EXPERIMENTAL AND NON-EXPERIMENTAL SETTINGS
-KNOWLEDGE OF THE MAIN ESTIMATION METHODS FOR THE TREATMENT OF SELECTION BIAS FOR EVALUATION PURPOSES
APPLYING KNOWLEDGE AND UNDERSTANDING
THE STUDENTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THE ABILITY TO USE ADVANCED MODELS FOR THE STATISTICAL EVALUATION OF POLICIES AND PROGRAMMES MANAGED BY PUBLIC OR PRIVATE ORGANIZATIONS. IN PARTICULAR THEY ARE EXPECTED TO GAIN THE FOLLOWING ABILITIES

-ABILITY TO IDENTIFY IN REAL APPLICATIONS METHODS AND MODELS THAT ARE ADEQUATE TO THE SPECIFIC DATASET AND PROBLEM OF INTEREST
-ABILITY TO USE A PC IN ORDER IMPLEMENT ON REAL DATA THE MAIN MODELS AND METHODS FOR POLICY AND PROGRAMME EVALUATION
-ABILITY TO INTERPRET, IN ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL TERMS, THE RESULTS OBTAINED FROM THE EMPIRICAL ANALYSES

AUTONOMIA DI GIUDIZIO (MAKING JUDGEMENTS)
IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE STUDENTS, IN THE ANALYSIS OF REAL CASE STUDIES, ARE ABLE TO CRITICALLY EVALUATE THE RESULTS AND, EVENTUALLY, BE ABLE TO FORMULATE CONSTRUCTIVE PROPOSALS OF IMPROVEMENT.

COMMUNICATION SKILLS
ABILITY TO PRESENT TO A NON-TECHNICAL AUDIENCE THE RESULTS OBTAINED FROM THE APPLICATION OF ADVANCED MODELS FOR PROGRAMME AND POLICY EVALUATION..

LEARNING SKILLS
ABILITY TO SUCCESSFULLY PERFORM ADVANCED TRAINING IN ECONOMIC STATISTICS IN MASTER OR DOCTORATE COURSES.

	Prerequisites
	BASIC KNOWLEDGE OF DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS AND INFERENCE, KNOWLEDGE OF THE LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL AND RELATED INFERENCE TECHNIQUES

	Contents
	MODULE A MODULE A WILL PROVIDE THE STUDENTS WITH THE BASIC ECONOMETRIC FOUNDATIONS OF PROGRAMME EVALUATION. NAMELY, THE LECTURES WILL FOCUS IN CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER ON THE FOLLOWING TOPICS. THE MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL: A REMINDER, THE ANALYSIS OF CAUSAL EFFECTS IN THE MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL, EFFECTS OF THE OMISSION OF RELEVANT EXPLANATORY VARIABLES, CONTROL VARIABLES : DEFINITION, SELECTION CRITERIA AND PROPERTIES OF THE OLS ESTIMATORS. NON-LINEAR REGRESSION FUNCTIONS: POLYNOMIAL FUNCTIONS, LOGARITHMIC TRANSFORMATIONS, INTERACTIONS. REGRESSION MODELS WITH PANEL DATA: REGRESSION MODELS WITH FIXED AND TIME VARYING EFFECTS, PROPERTIES OF ESTIMATORS: MAIN ASSUMPTIONS AND COMPUTATION OF STANDARD ERRORS IN THE FIXED EFFECTS REGRESSION. REGRESSION MODELS WITH INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES: MOTIVATION, STATISTICAL DEFINITION OF “INSTRUMENT”, RELEVANCE AND EXOGENEITY OF THE INSTRUMENTS, THE TWO STAGE LEAST SQUARES (TSLS) ESTIMATOR. BASIC ASSUMPTIONS AND STATISTICAL PROPERTIES OF THE TSLS ESTIMATOR. THE PRESENTATION OF THEORETICAL ISSUES WILL BE COMPLEMENTED BY THE DEVELOPMENT AND DISCUSSION OF CASE STUDIES ON REAL DATA. MODULE B MODULE B OF THE COURSE WILL INTRODUCE THE STUDENTS TO THE EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTS OF POLICIES AND IN GENERAL OF ANY PUBLIC OR PRIVATE INTERVENTION PROGRAMME. PARTICULAR ATTENTION WILL BE PAID TO THE STATISTICAL TREATMENT OF THE PROBLEM. WE WILL THEN PROCEED TO THE ILLUSTRATION OF SOME STATISTICAL APPROACHES TO THE ESTIMATION OF THE EFFECTS OF POLICIES OR INTERVENTION PROGRAMMES. NAMELY, THE LECTURES WILL FOCUS IN CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER ON THE FOLLOWING TOPICS. THE ESTIMATION OF CAUSAL EFFECTS: POTENTIAL RESULTS, CAUSAL EFFECTS AND IDEAL EXPERIMENTS. THREATS TO THE VALIDITY OF EXPERIMENTS. QUASI-EXPERIMENTS; THREATS TO THE VALIDITY OF EXPERIMENTS. THE “EVALUATION PROBLEM”. THE COUNTERFACTUAL APPROACH TO THE EVALUATION OF EFFECTS, THE EXPERIMENTAL METHOD, SPATIO-TEMPORAL COMPARISONS WITH NON-EXPERIMENTAL DATA AND THREATS TO THEIR VALIDITY: STRNGTHS AND DRAWBACKS OF THE DIFF-IN-DIFF APPROACH. SELECTION BIAS AND STATISTICAL APPROACHES TO ITS TREATMENT: METHODS BASED ON REGRESSION ANALYSIS AND STATISTICAL MATCHING. METHODS BASED ON TREATMENT DICSONTINUITY. APPLICATIONS TO THE ITALIAN ECONOMY. THE ESTIMATION OF CAUSAL EFFECTS: POTENTIAL RESULTS, CAUSAL EFFECTS AND IDEAL EXPERIMENTS. THREATS TO THE VALIDITY OF EXPERIMENTS. QUASI-EXPERIMENTS; THREATS TO THE VALIDITY OF EXPERIMENTS.

Contents

MODULE A
MODULE A WILL PROVIDE THE STUDENTS WITH THE BASIC ECONOMETRIC FOUNDATIONS OF PROGRAMME EVALUATION. NAMELY, THE LECTURES WILL FOCUS IN CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER ON THE FOLLOWING TOPICS.
THE MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL: A REMINDER, THE ANALYSIS OF CAUSAL EFFECTS IN THE MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL, EFFECTS OF THE OMISSION OF RELEVANT EXPLANATORY VARIABLES, CONTROL VARIABLES : DEFINITION, SELECTION CRITERIA AND PROPERTIES OF THE OLS ESTIMATORS. NON-LINEAR REGRESSION FUNCTIONS: POLYNOMIAL FUNCTIONS, LOGARITHMIC TRANSFORMATIONS, INTERACTIONS.
REGRESSION MODELS WITH PANEL DATA: REGRESSION MODELS WITH FIXED AND TIME VARYING EFFECTS, PROPERTIES OF ESTIMATORS: MAIN ASSUMPTIONS AND COMPUTATION OF STANDARD ERRORS IN THE FIXED EFFECTS REGRESSION.
REGRESSION MODELS WITH INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES: MOTIVATION, STATISTICAL DEFINITION OF “INSTRUMENT”, RELEVANCE AND EXOGENEITY OF THE INSTRUMENTS, THE TWO STAGE LEAST SQUARES (TSLS) ESTIMATOR. BASIC ASSUMPTIONS AND STATISTICAL PROPERTIES OF THE TSLS ESTIMATOR.
THE PRESENTATION OF THEORETICAL ISSUES WILL BE COMPLEMENTED BY THE DEVELOPMENT AND DISCUSSION OF CASE STUDIES ON REAL DATA.
MODULE B
MODULE B OF THE COURSE WILL INTRODUCE THE STUDENTS TO THE EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTS OF POLICIES AND IN GENERAL OF ANY PUBLIC OR PRIVATE INTERVENTION PROGRAMME. PARTICULAR ATTENTION WILL BE PAID TO THE STATISTICAL TREATMENT OF THE PROBLEM. WE WILL THEN PROCEED TO THE ILLUSTRATION OF SOME STATISTICAL APPROACHES TO THE ESTIMATION OF THE EFFECTS OF POLICIES OR INTERVENTION PROGRAMMES.
NAMELY, THE LECTURES WILL FOCUS IN CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER ON THE FOLLOWING TOPICS.
THE ESTIMATION OF CAUSAL EFFECTS: POTENTIAL RESULTS, CAUSAL EFFECTS AND IDEAL EXPERIMENTS. THREATS TO THE VALIDITY OF EXPERIMENTS. QUASI-EXPERIMENTS; THREATS TO THE VALIDITY OF EXPERIMENTS.
THE “EVALUATION PROBLEM”. THE COUNTERFACTUAL APPROACH TO THE EVALUATION OF EFFECTS, THE EXPERIMENTAL METHOD, SPATIO-TEMPORAL COMPARISONS WITH NON-EXPERIMENTAL DATA AND THREATS TO THEIR VALIDITY: STRNGTHS AND DRAWBACKS OF THE DIFF-IN-DIFF APPROACH. SELECTION BIAS AND STATISTICAL APPROACHES TO ITS TREATMENT: METHODS BASED ON REGRESSION ANALYSIS AND STATISTICAL MATCHING. METHODS BASED ON TREATMENT DICSONTINUITY. APPLICATIONS TO THE ITALIAN ECONOMY.

THE ESTIMATION OF CAUSAL EFFECTS: POTENTIAL RESULTS, CAUSAL EFFECTS AND IDEAL EXPERIMENTS. THREATS TO THE VALIDITY OF EXPERIMENTS. QUASI-EXPERIMENTS; THREATS TO THE VALIDITY OF EXPERIMENTS.

	Teaching Methods
	30 LECTURES OF TWO HOURS EACH (15 FOR EACH MODULE). 10 OF THESE (5 FOR EACH MODULE) WILL BE GIVEN IN THE FORM OF PRACTICALS IN THE COMPUTER LAB.

	Verification of learning
	THE SATISFACTORY ACHIEVEMENT OF THE AIMS OF THE COURSE IS ASSESSED THROUGH AN EXAM WITH MARKS OUT OF THIRTY. THE EXAM INCLUDES A WRITTEN TEST AS WELL AS AN ORAL INTERVIEW THAT CAN BE POTENTIALLY HELD IN DIFFERENT DAYS. SUCCESSFUL COMPLETION OF THE WRITTEN TEST IS REQUIRED FOR BEING ADMITTED TO THE ORAL INTERVIEW. FOR EACH STEP THE MARK IS EXPRESSED OUT OF THIRTY AND THE PASS MARK IS 18. THE FINAL MARK IS AN AVERAGE OF THE TWO MARKS REPORTED IN THE WRITTEN TEST AND ORAL INTERVIEW RESPECTIVELY. THE WRITTEN TEST, OF LENGTH APPROXIMATELY EQUAL TO 90 MINUTES, IS AIMED AT ASSESSING THE KNOWLEDGE AND THE ABILITY TO UNDERSTAND THE SUBJECTS INDICATED IN THE COURSE PROGRAMME, THE ABILITY TO MASTER AND APPLY THE ANALYTICAL TOOLS REQUIRED AND THE ABILITY TO APPLY THE THEORETICAL NOTIONS TAUGHT. THE WRITTEN TEST REQUIRES I) THE SOLUTION OF NUMERICAL EXERCISES RELATED TO THE MAIN TOPICS COVERED DURING THE COURSE (E.G. IMPLEMENTING METHODS FOR POLICY EVALUATION OR EVELUATION OF THEIR PROPERTIES) II) ANSWERING TO THEORETICAL QUESTIONS ON THE TOPICS INCLUDED IN THE COURSE PROGRAMME III) FORMULATING CRITICAL CONSIDERATIONS ON THE RESULTS OF REAL CASE STUDIES. DURING THE WRITTEN TEST STUDENTS ARE NOT ALLOWED TO READ TEXTBOOKS, USE PCS, TABLETS AND MOBILE PHONES; THEY ARE ONLY ALLOWED TO USE A BASIC ELECTRONIC CALCULATOR AND THE USUAL STATISTICAL TABLES. THE ORAL INTERVIEW, OF LENGTH APPROXIMATELY EQUAL TO 20 MINUTES, CONSISTS IN THEORETICAL QUESTIONS ON THE MAIN METHODS, MODELS AND, IN GENERAL, NOTIONS INCLUDED IN THE COURSE PROGRAMME. IN PARTICULAR THE FOCUS WILL BE ON EVALUATING THE ABILITY TO CORRECTLY APPLY THE TAUGHT METHODS, THE RIGOUR AND CLARITY OF EXPRESSION.

Verification of learning

THE SATISFACTORY ACHIEVEMENT OF THE AIMS OF THE COURSE IS ASSESSED THROUGH AN EXAM WITH MARKS OUT OF THIRTY.
THE EXAM INCLUDES A WRITTEN TEST AS WELL AS AN ORAL INTERVIEW THAT CAN BE POTENTIALLY HELD IN DIFFERENT DAYS. SUCCESSFUL COMPLETION OF THE WRITTEN TEST IS REQUIRED FOR BEING ADMITTED TO THE ORAL INTERVIEW. FOR EACH STEP THE MARK IS EXPRESSED OUT OF THIRTY AND THE PASS MARK IS 18. THE FINAL MARK IS AN AVERAGE OF THE TWO MARKS REPORTED IN THE WRITTEN TEST AND ORAL INTERVIEW RESPECTIVELY.
THE WRITTEN TEST, OF LENGTH APPROXIMATELY EQUAL TO 90 MINUTES, IS AIMED AT ASSESSING THE KNOWLEDGE AND THE ABILITY TO UNDERSTAND THE SUBJECTS INDICATED IN THE COURSE PROGRAMME, THE ABILITY TO MASTER AND APPLY THE ANALYTICAL TOOLS REQUIRED AND THE ABILITY TO APPLY THE THEORETICAL NOTIONS TAUGHT.
THE WRITTEN TEST REQUIRES I) THE SOLUTION OF NUMERICAL EXERCISES RELATED TO THE MAIN TOPICS COVERED DURING THE COURSE (E.G. IMPLEMENTING METHODS FOR POLICY EVALUATION OR EVELUATION OF THEIR PROPERTIES) II) ANSWERING TO THEORETICAL QUESTIONS ON THE TOPICS INCLUDED IN THE COURSE PROGRAMME III) FORMULATING CRITICAL CONSIDERATIONS ON THE RESULTS OF REAL CASE STUDIES.
DURING THE WRITTEN TEST STUDENTS ARE NOT ALLOWED TO READ TEXTBOOKS, USE PCS, TABLETS AND MOBILE PHONES; THEY ARE ONLY ALLOWED TO USE A BASIC ELECTRONIC CALCULATOR AND THE USUAL STATISTICAL TABLES.
THE ORAL INTERVIEW, OF LENGTH APPROXIMATELY EQUAL TO 20 MINUTES, CONSISTS IN THEORETICAL QUESTIONS ON THE MAIN METHODS, MODELS AND, IN GENERAL, NOTIONS INCLUDED IN THE COURSE PROGRAMME. IN PARTICULAR THE FOCUS WILL BE ON EVALUATING THE ABILITY TO CORRECTLY APPLY THE TAUGHT METHODS, THE RIGOUR AND CLARITY OF EXPRESSION.

	Texts
	FOR MODULE A JAMES H. STOCK, MARK W. WATSON (2016) INTRODUZIONE ALL'ECONOMETRIA, IV EDITION. CAP. 6.1,7.5-7.6,8-9-10-12, PEARSON (OR EQUIVALENTLY 3RD EDITION OF STOCK AND WATSON, 2011, INTRODUCTION TO ECONOMETRICS, III EDITION, PEARSON). FOR MODULE B JAMES H. STOCK, MARK W. WATSON (2016) INTRODUCTION TO ECONOMETRICS, IV EDITION. CAP. 13 (OR EQUIVALENTLY 3RD EDITION OF STOCK AND WATSON, 2011, INTRODUCTION TO ECONOMETRICS, III EDITION, PEARSON). ALBERTO MARTINI, LUCA MO COSTABELLA, MARCO SISTI, BARBARA ROMANO (2006) VALUTARE GLI EFFETTI DELLE POLITICHE PUBBLICHE/METODI E APPLICAZIONI AL CASO ITALIANO (ITALIAN), FORMEZ. DOWNLOADABLE FROM THE URL HTTP://FOCUS.FORMEZ.IT/CONTENT/VALUTARE-EFFETTI-POLITICHE-PUBBLICHEMETODI-E-APPLICAZIONI-CASO-ITALIANO. FOR DEEPER INSIGHTS ON THE TOPICS ILLUSTRATED IN MODULE B THE STUDENTS CAN REFER TO THE PAPER: GUIDO W. IMBENS, JEFFREY M. WOOLDRIDGE (2009) RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE ECONOMETRICS OF PROGRAM EVALUATION, JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE, VOL. 47, NO. 1, MARCH 2009 (PP. 5-86).

Texts

FOR MODULE A
JAMES H. STOCK, MARK W. WATSON (2016) INTRODUZIONE ALL'ECONOMETRIA, IV EDITION. CAP. 6.1,7.5-7.6,8-9-10-12, PEARSON (OR EQUIVALENTLY 3RD EDITION OF STOCK AND WATSON, 2011, INTRODUCTION TO ECONOMETRICS, III EDITION, PEARSON).

FOR MODULE B
JAMES H. STOCK, MARK W. WATSON (2016) INTRODUCTION TO ECONOMETRICS, IV EDITION. CAP. 13 (OR EQUIVALENTLY 3RD EDITION OF STOCK AND WATSON, 2011, INTRODUCTION TO ECONOMETRICS, III EDITION, PEARSON).

ALBERTO MARTINI, LUCA MO COSTABELLA, MARCO SISTI, BARBARA ROMANO (2006) VALUTARE GLI EFFETTI DELLE POLITICHE PUBBLICHE/METODI E APPLICAZIONI AL CASO ITALIANO (ITALIAN), FORMEZ.
DOWNLOADABLE FROM THE URL
HTTP://FOCUS.FORMEZ.IT/CONTENT/VALUTARE-EFFETTI-POLITICHE-PUBBLICHEMETODI-E-APPLICAZIONI-CASO-ITALIANO.

FOR DEEPER INSIGHTS ON THE TOPICS ILLUSTRATED IN MODULE B THE STUDENTS CAN REFER TO THE PAPER:

GUIDO W. IMBENS, JEFFREY M. WOOLDRIDGE (2009) RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE ECONOMETRICS OF PROGRAM EVALUATION, JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE, VOL. 47, NO. 1, MARCH 2009 (PP. 5-86).